September 09, 2010
11/21/2008

Buckle Up For A Wild Ride

As Thanksgiving approaches I have to say that there is very little to be thankful for when it comes to the stock market.

While I wish I could say that I think the worst is over, I am so sorry to say that I do not think that is true on any level. It is very probable that given the state of the economy, with real estate still in big trouble, the problems with the automotive industry, the commercial mortgage backed security market being the next shoe to drop, it would be very smart to keep buckled up for more of a wild ride. 

As I have said before if you have time on your side-and I mean at least 10 years and preferably more—in the long run you will eventually reap the gains that will come with when the market rebounds. However, as I have always said if you have a need for your money within five to ten years this is not money that belongs in the market. It never did and it never will. Money you need sooner, rather than later belongs in a federally insured bank or credit union savings account, Treasury notes, or high quality municipal bonds. But not stocks.

Taking Stock
Now if you do have time on your side, I want you to keep focused on your long-term goal. Try not to get too upset over what is happening today or next week. Think about the fact that the more shares of stocks you can buy now at lower prices puts you in a position to make more money 15, 20, 25 years down the line; for it is the future value of the shares you own today that is important.

While I doubt we have yet to see the true market bottom, I thought you might be interested that I bought some stocks at the close of the market yesterday. I am okay with the fact that they may go down even more from here. I have time on my side. And what you need to understand is that I bought stocks that are paying a very big dividend right now—some as high as 9%. The way I look at it, I am being paid a very high dividend today, and that in a way makes it a lot easier if the stock itself goes down in value. I am being paid today to be patient about the underlying stock over the long term. If you are thinking of investing today I recommend considering dividend paying stocks (if you have at least $100,000 or more to build a diversified portfolio) or if not then look into dividend-paying ETFs.

The key is to not make any big investment in one fell swoop. You want to put small amounts of money into the market over time; maybe every two weeks, or monthly or quarterly. No rushing! Dollar cost averaging is the way to go.

I would also advise you to steer clear of financial service firms with high dividend payouts; they are just too risky right now. The reason their dividend is so high is that their prices are so low.

Reality Check
I have to say that I continue to find it more than a bit depressing that many of you continue to act as if none of this affects you. You continue to charge more on your credit card than you can pay off, as well as continuing to dine out and spend on vacations. Yet your savings couldn’t support your family for eight weeks, let alone the eight months I think is prudent.

You need to understand you are not immune. The chance that you may lose your job escalates every day.

So here is my Thanksgiving wish for all of you. I ask you to get in touch with what really matters. I ask you to think twice about spending money because you think you can.  I ask that you get how serious this economic crisis is, and that you begin to make the right financial decisions that will help you and your family build true security.

  • I ask you to become a saver for maybe the first time in your life. 
  • I ask you to get out of credit card debt. It may take time, but make the commitment to lower your debt every month and you are on a healthier path.

I promise that if you make a commitment to these two goals you will have so much to be thankful for in years to come. Ignore them and you are destined to find yourself in the midst of a devastating personal financial crisis. I don’t want that for you, and deep down I know you don’t want that for yourself. You can change. You can do it.  You just have to decide to start doing it right now.




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