Don’t Just Worry About a Recession. Prepare.


Emergency Fund, Financial Security, Money Management


April 24, 2025

The economic fallout from a change in U.S. tariffs on imported goods and services has already sent stock values tumbling, caused turmoil in the bond market, and pushed down the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies.

 

And now comes the next phase of the fallout: Will a change in the cost and availability of imported finished goods and materials cause an economic recession?

 

More than 7 in 10 U.S. people recently surveyed by consumer data firm Numerator say they are very or somewhat concerned about a recession in the coming year. Wall Street firms have also updated their forecasts to reflect a greater probability for a recession in the near term.

 

Regardless of whether you think the upending of our long-standing tariff policy is good or bad, I think it is indeed smart to be worried about a recession.

 

My challenge to you is simple: What can you do today to prepare?

 

Worrying is useless unless it serves as a catalyst to take action.

 

Here’s how you can, and should, be preparing for the next recession, whether it is two months or two years away.

 

1. Spend Less. Now is not the time to plan expensive vacations or engage in retail therapy. Every dollar you don’t spend today is a dollar that can be used for so many smart recession-protection moves. This is a call to focus on needs, not wants.

 

2. Build up Emergency Savings. In a recession, having at least a year’s worth of living expenses in this account can be a lifesaver. It is what will help you pay the bills if you are laid off, or have your hours reduced, or find your commissions fall. If you are expecting a tax refund to hit your direct deposit in the coming weeks, I would seriously consider immediately moving it into your dedicated emergency savings account.

 

3. Put Adult Kids on Alert. I know so many of you continue to help support your grown children. If you have committed to paying for a specific need of theirs (helping out with rent, for example), I don’t expect you to pull the rug out and stop that payment. But I know many of you simply give your kids money without a specific use. And I think that means many of you are bankrolling wants of theirs, not needs. I have a problem with that, no matter what the economic outlook, but it is insane to do this if you are not fully prepared for a recession.

 

4. Prepare for the High Cost of COBRA. If you have health insurance through your employer, and you are laid off, you will likely be eligible to keep the coverage for up to 18 months, under a federal regulation called COBRA. But there is one huge catch: you will be 100% responsible for the entire cost of the premium. In fact, you can be charged 102% of the total premium to cover administrative costs.

 

That’s another reason to build up your emergency savings now. And to reduce your spending now. And to focus more than ever on needs and forego wants for a while.

 

If you are laid off, before you just accept the cost of keeping your health insurance on COBRA, I encourage you to check the cost of a policy through the Affordable Care Act. Each state’s plans are different, but in general, the less you earn, the more likely you will be eligible for a reduced premium on coverage. You can start your research at healthcare.gov.

 

5. Skill Up. If you know there are ways you could add to your work skills, but have not had the motivation to commit to extra learning or training, well, I bet a threat of a recession might get you moving. Maybe this helps you stay employed right where you are. But even if you are laid off, being able to tout up-to-date and in-demand skills on your resume is going to be a big boost to landing your next job.

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