Investing, Podcast, Saving, Student Loans
November 13, 2022
Listen to Podcast Episode:
This incredibly educational Suze School covers the latest with the Stock Market, the decline of the dollar, treasuries, inflation, bitcoin, student loan forgiveness and more, so make sure you have your Suze notebook ready.
Suze: November 13th, 2022. Welcome everybody to the Suze School edition of the Women & Money podcast, and everybody smart enough to listen. In this podcast, it is essential that you take out paper, pen or pencil,
Suze: because I want to work with you with specific numbers, not just for you to take notes in your Suze little notebook, which I still want you to do, and you can do this in your notebook. But I want to show you just a few things today. And I want to go through the numbers with you.
Suze: And today we are going to cover Treasuries, not just how to buy them, how to sell them. No. What Treasuries are telling us. And how at this particular point in time. I don't really want you to be buying Treasuries like I did before. Just put a note in that or a pin in that, and we will get back to that. But we're gonna talk about Treasuries, the stock market, the dollar, inflation.
Suze: Interest rates, Bitcoin, FTX, the student loan forgiveness program, which is absolutely in trouble. I just can't even begin to believe it. But all right. And we're gonna talk about those things. But what I really want you all to understand,
Suze: is that interest rates, inflation and the dollar,
Suze: are three key things really that will affect every single one of us economically speaking. So we will go over those three things really in detail.
Suze: Last week, I have to say that the fact that the market went up 1200 points in one day simply because the inflation rate was not as high as everybody was expecting,
Suze: it was only off by like 2/10 of a percent okay, everybody? That the market went up 1200 points that day,
Suze: the NASDAQ which is mainly technology, absolutely skyrocketed, along with the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
Suze: I just find that so ridiculous, I don't even know what to say about it.
Suze: And I find it ridiculous for a few reasons. But number one, we are still at a 7.7% inflation rate.
Suze: I don't know, call me crazy. But do you really think that that is a low inflation rate?
Suze: That it really adjusted so much? I don't think so.
Suze: And I also think that we haven't really looked at what's going to happen with energy come winter, and certain other things.
Suze: Yes, I get that it went up incredibly last week.
Suze: But I don't want you to be fooled into thinking this is the end, it's going straight up from here. I need to get back into the stock market with everything I have. In fact, on that day, I actually sold even more stock. Uh huh. I took advantage of certain stocks that I wanted to sell.
Suze: Remember I talked about a week or two ago,
Suze: tax loss harvesting, so that I want to make sure that I sell my winners against my losers, and at the end of the year I'm even with taxes that way.
Suze: So I took advantage of some stocks that went up considerably that day, and I sold them.
Suze: What also happened on that day, which I found very interesting, was two things. All right, get out here paper and pencil.
Suze: Those two things
Suze: were the volume of the stock market,
Suze: and an index called the VIX. Symbol is V-I-X. And you can go in, and wherever you put in your quotes to look up stocks, you can put in V-I-X, and up will come a number. When you do that right now, the number will be 22.52. So 22 and a half essentially,
Suze: Alright, let's start with that number.
Suze: That number represents the Chicago board option exchange volatility index. It is an index that measures volatility.
Suze: Everybody calls it the fear gauge because volatility comes when emotionally speaking you are afraid, or you feel secure in the markets.
Suze: Now we call this index a counter index, because supposedly the lower it goes,
Suze: the more confident you feel, the less fear you have, the higher it goes, the more fear you have, the less confident you feel all year. This index has been going between 20 and 35. 20 means you don't have a lot of fear.
Suze: 35 and in the 40s, oh you are scared to death. It's at those times when the index is around 20 or 22, right in there, that normally it's an indicator that the market will turn around and start to go back down.
Suze: Remember I told you it was a counter index. When you are not afraid is the time that you should be afraid. At the time that you're feeling confident, is the time that you should be more cautious. Okay? So first of all, the VIX is at 22.52. That gets my attention. The other thing for a market to be a strong stock market, has to be that it goes up
Suze: on volume. There are a lot of shares traded. A lot of people are in it. It's got mass participation. Last week when the market went up all that way, it was on very low volume. So I have low volume, with a low VIX, which says to me this isn't gonna last a whole lot longer.
Suze: Now. I've said to you that it wouldn't surprise me if the stock market went up. I told you that I think three weeks ago. Tt went up the next week and the next week and here we are. It also will not surprise me if the stock market goes up again next week.
Suze: You know, the Standard & Poor's 500 index could very easily go up another 2.5, 3%.
Suze: But I do not believe this is a market that is going straight up.
Suze: I think we are in what is called a bear market, a market whose overall trend is still down,
Suze: but we are in a bear market rally right now.
Suze: So that's what I think. You on the other hand, have to know what you think and how you feel about it.
Suze: So all I can do is I can tell you things that I've done, where I'm at, and why I'm still skeptical about this market.
Suze: So. For those of you, I will reiterate, for those of you who need your money within a year or so, this is not money that belongs in the stock market. So if you have to take out a lump sum of cash to do what? To pay for a college education, to do things like that,
Suze: that's money that has never belonged in the stock market, and it doesn't belong in there right now. Okay? So that's for short term. Long term, I still don't have a problem for you to dollar cost average. I just think you should do it maybe on a slower level. Rather than every month, every other month or every third month.
Suze: I still totally believe in stocks that are giving you a high dividend, or a good dividend yield. Stocks that are offering you value, that they produce things, that they're making money, they're solid. That doesn't mean that you can't mix in certain stocks that are technology oriented or you know, things like Amazon, or Microsoft, possibly now, even
Suze: Meta. You know what's so funny, just let's put a pin in where I was right now, let's hope, I can remember. Remember a little week ago, KT said, I like Meta. I would buy Meta.
Suze: And I said, and Meta is the new name for Facebook and I said I won't touch Meta with a 10-foot pole.
Suze: And that was because at that particular moment in time,
Suze: Mark Zuckerberg was investing $10 billion dollars in the Metaverse, which I still don't understand on any level. And when I don't understand something, I don't like to invest in it.
Suze: And I watched the stock go down and down and down. He wasn't laying off anybody. He kept just throwing good money after bad and I didn't like that.
Suze: Now I don't know what got into Mark,
Suze: but all of a sudden in my opinion, he came back to reality, he laid off 13,000, I think it was 13,000 employees. He's stopping to invest as much money, if any, in the metaverse, and now he is going back to how he always made money. And with that, the stock went up considerably.
Suze: So if Mark is going back to that, and Facebook, even though it has a new name, is you know, doing what it's doing right now and being logical all right, KT proved right, don't I have a saying KT is always right? Well again, if we had listened to her that day, we would have made some nice money.
Suze: But we're not in this just for the short term. We're not in this to see a stock go up 10 or 15 points and then sell it and then have to pay taxes on it or whatever. We're in this for the long term. To invest in good quality stocks that pay us a dividend,
Suze: the over the long run will even if it goes down, in the near term in the long run, it will return and go up where dollar cost averaging into those types of stocks. We are diversified across the board, and we are fine. All right. That's what I think. So that's the stock market. Now, let's talk about the bond market.
Suze: Remember also how I said a little bit ago that I didn't want you to buy long term bonds, that I did at that time, want you to buy Treasuries. But do you remember me saying it wouldn't surprise me if we saw Treasuries, especially the 10-year, go down from like 4.5 or wherever it was, down to like 3.5, possibly 3.15%? So just know that that could happen. Well, guess what? In one day
Suze: we saw a serious decline in the Treasury market, we saw the 10-year Treasury go to 3.8%, 00:13:11
Suze: from in the force. That's the largest decrease that any of us have seen in a long, long time. Okay, I'm not exactly sure why that happened. A lot of people say it happened because the dollar, remember we've also talked about how strong the dollar was, how weak the euro was, and that you could very easily go to Europe, and have a fabulous time.
Suze: But for some reason, this strong dollar that we have experienced for a long time right now, has been declining. It is getting weaker. When the dollar gets weaker, the stock market goes up. Because a strong dollar, without giving an entire economics lesson here,
Suze: a strong dollar is not good for many of the stocks or the companies on the stock exchange, because it costs them more money to do business overseas, and now that we're a global economy, a strong dollar hurts corporate profits. Just that simple.
Suze: The dollar is starting to get weaker, which also did what? Helped the stock market go up, and very possibly could be some of the reason why Treasuries went down in interest rates Okay? Just, who knows? Now, even though the dollar is weaker here
Suze: and coming down, I do think that the dollar will turn around and start to get stronger again. Got that everybody? And again, just for a brief synopsis, the dollar gets stronger, stock market goes down, interest rates go up, inflation may stay here. So do you see where we're going?
Suze: But here's what I want you to know about interest rates again. Paper and pencil or pen.
Suze: Write these figures down. The one-year treasury is at 4.6%,
Suze: the two-year treasury is at 4.3%,
Suze: the three-year Treasury is 4.178%. The five-year Treasury is 3.936%. The seven-year Treasury is 3.876%. And the 10-year Treasury is 3.811%.
Suze: The one-year, two-year, three-year five-year seven-year, 10-year. When you buy a Treasury that has those years attached to it, your interest rate is fixed for all 10 years, seven years, five years, three years, two years or one year. So if you bought a Treasury today
Suze: at those interest rates, depending on the maturity, is at a 1,2,3,5,7 or 10 year. That is how long that rate would be locked in there for.
Suze: Again. Treasuries give you interest every six months. They pay you interest every six months. Okay. Look at your little piece of paper in front of you. What do you notice about those interest rates that I just gave you?
Suze: Take a look at them. What do you notice about them?
Suze: The answer to that question actually, that was your little little quizzie. That was your quizzie everybody. Did you get an (Wrong answer sound) or a Ding Ding Ding Ding? Anyway,
Suze: what I want you to notice is that how the shorter-term maturities
Suze: are paying you more than the longer-term maturity?
Suze: A one year will pay you 4.6,
Suze: while a 10 year will only pay you 3.811%.
Suze: Now, the reason that that is important for you to look at, is this is what is called, write it down. An inverted rate yield curve.
Suze: The yields, the rates, are inverted. Because logically speaking, a healthy yield curve is that you are paid more to lock up your money for a longer period of time.
Suze: So what it should be is that the longer maturity, the 10 year, should be more than the seven year. The seven year should be more than the five year, the five years should be more than the three year, the three years should be more than the two year, and the two years should be more than the one year.
Suze: That is a normal yield rate curve.
Suze: You are being paid more to lock up your money for longer, because there's more risk in doing so. Whenever you have an inverted rate curve, like we have now,
Suze: dating back to 1955, everybody,
Suze: every single time we have had an inverted rate curve,
Suze: it has preceded a recession.
Suze: Now. Maybe it preceded a recession by a few months, maybe by a year, maybe by two years. But it preceded a recession.
Suze: And that is a warning sign.
Suze: And it's a warning sign, along with the VIX, along with other things, that I want you to pay attention to.
Suze: Because when we go into recession, it will and I still think according to these numbers, we will go into recession possibly next year, sometime when we go into a recession, it will affect every single one of us differently. You know, we used to be this truly united global front, where a recession affected all of us the same. It doesn't anymore.
Suze: There's such a discrepancy, truthfully in economic households, with the amount of wealth in some households versus the lack of wealth in other households,
Suze: it now affects us all very, very differently.
Suze: But for the majority of Americans, it affects them in really a way where they have to be protective of their money.
Suze: They have to care about what things cost. They have to make sure they have their 8 to 12 month emergency fund, because when this starts to happen, this is when jobs start to go away. Now I do not care that we have a low unemployment rate. When I start to see Meta lay off 13,000 people. When I see Twitter.
Suze: And that's a whole nother conversation that I will not make any comments on by the way.
Suze: Because I don't even know what to say about it. Right? Lay off half of their workforce. When you can see that most likely people were waiting to make dramatic reductions in things, meaning their workforce, the way they run their business until after the election for some reason,
Suze: I think you just have to be careful. Now Suze Orman is not a doom and gloomer. I am not.
Suze: Right. I am a realist. And I see my job as being your protector, believe it or not.
Suze: And I just want to put it out there and again to educate you. But for you to make your own decisions. Now back to Treasuries for a second.
Suze: I have been such an advocate. Have I not? In this series I bonds, buy Treasuries, do a Treasury ladder. Here's what I think is going to happen with Treasuries. I think you will see the 10 year, that's now at 3.8%, very easily go down to 3.5, maybe even 3.25, 3.15. I think it will continue to go down.
Suze: Now. I want you to remember what I said just there because that absolutely will affect mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are not determined on what the Fed funds do. They are determined solely on what the yield of the 10-year Treasury happens to be.
Suze: So. Let me just put a pin in that for a second. You will notice, that now that Treasuries, the 10 year Treasury is down at 3.8% approximately. 30-year mortgages have dropped to almost 6.6%
Suze: from in the sevens. So mortgage rates follow Treasuries. This is a very important lesson that I'm giving you right now. They follow the 10-year Treasury to be specific.
Suze: If the 10-year Treasury, in my opinion, most likely will go down to 3.5 to 3 and a quarter percent, that means mortgage rates will also go lower than they are right now.
Suze: So if you are thinking about buying a home,
Suze: because home prices have started to go down, or at least stabilize in many areas. And I talked about that last week. Inventory, how it's growing in many areas. But anyway, if you're thinking about buying a home, and you need to finance it,
Suze: which is all of America most likely, then in the next bit of time, might be the time that you want to do it, because a one or 1.5% difference in mortgage rates is a big deal.
Suze: If you are buying Treasuries for the yield, I don't have a problem if you put some of your money into a one year, or a two year.
Suze: But I don't think I would go out a whole lot longer right now than two years at these particular interest rates. I just have to tell you that.
Suze: I do think that this is a temporary situation.
Suze: I am not thinking that this is the end, and that interest rates on Treasuries are going to go lower and lower. I personally think that sometime next year.
Suze: That it is very possible that you could see a 10-year Treasury at about five or 5.5%.
Suze: Now, if that happens, I also want you to think what happens to the mortgage interest rates that will be out there, and therefore what will happen to real estate prices. Now I don't know if that's going to happen or not. So you have to make your own decisions on it. I again am just telling you,
Suze: what I think and how I'm planning things. So that's just something that you might want to know. We might want to do a switch here depending on what banks do,
Suze: with their certificates of deposit, we may find that some banks or credit unions, most likely it will be credit unions by the way, will be giving higher interest rates on certificates a deposit than the Treasury will be giving.
Suze: So we might want to make a little switch there, but I'll talk about that when I see that happening. Okay? But it's very likely that we may want to do that. So don't go gung ho now, if you haven't already done it, a week, two, three weeks ago, now is not the time to go gung ho on a Treasury ladder. Okay? It's just not, it doesn't make sense.
Suze: Now when you are listening to the Women & Money podcast, it is very important, and I've said this before, that you listen to the date that I am giving the podcast. And you follow up and you listen the next week, and the next week, and the next week, because I absolutely, depending on what's happening out there, will change what I am telling you to do.
Suze: So don't be one of these podcast listeners that listened to one podcast that I did two months ago, you take action on it, and you're doing the wrong thing. Because if you didn't take the action when I said to take the action, that doesn't mean today I still want you to take the action.
Suze: So I hope that's clear on that. Now I'm already at about 30 minutes. So with your permission, although you don't have to give me permission, I'm going to go a little bit longer today, because there's a few things that I do also want to get in.
Suze: So inflation we talked about, we talked about the stock market, we talked about Treasuries, we talked about mortgages, real estate, all of that is there. The next thing I want to talk about is Bitcoin and FTX.
Suze: All I can do is sigh here. I don't even know what to say about it. FTX, which you heard me say I liked a lot, which was the second largest crypto exchange in the world,
Suze: in the world.
Suze: Everybody was backing this. You had venture capital groups that we're putting in 200 million at a throw to them. You know, they needed to raise money, FTX needed to raise money. Within a few days, they raised 900 million from some of the most brilliant minds out there.
Suze: You had people like Tom Brady and Stephen Curry and all these people, not being not spokesman for FTX, but for people who were on the Super Bowl and said I trade with them, I'm with them. They all had equity involved with them.
Suze: I have to tell you, I can't even begin to imagine what happened there, for a $36 billion dollar company
Suze: to essentially go bankrupt overnight. I don't get it.
Suze: But here's what I get. It had a dramatic effect on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Suze: Today, Bitcoin is right around $16,827. A Bitcoin Ethereum is at 1250, for it had a dramatic hit on cryptocurrencies,
Suze: which is why I've always said do not invest in crypto of any kind with money that you cannot afford to lose. For people who have money
Suze: in FTX.us, the U. S. Version of F T X, which made up maybe 1% or so of their entire holdings, FTX was more of a global company globally. They are seriously in trouble. If you have Bitcoin with them, or Ethereum, with them or money with them, I would take it out.
Suze: And that's exactly what I did. I don't have money with FTX, and I'm just so sorry that that happened to them.
Suze: Because really they were one of the best trading platforms out there. So I would just say, play it safe and go somewhere else. But then you have to wonder, or where else is safe? Could this happen anywhere? If it could happen to FTX, could it happen anywhere? So many people who still believe in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and I'm not somebody who says you shouldn't own it.
Suze: I still think in the long run, after they get over all of this, that they're still viable for the future, possibly.
Suze: But only with money that you can afford to lose. Most people now are taking out a wallet. Remember the good old days, when people if you bought crypto you got a wallet, you stored your crypto on your own wallet, it wasn't with any institution, and you felt secure about that, as long as you didn't lose your wallet or your passcodes. That's what many people are doing right now. I have to say one other thing.
Suze: And I just want to say shame on certain major brokerage firms, that were allowing people to put money into crypto within their retirement accounts. Shame on them. And if you have money in crypto, in a retirement account, I just think that could be one of the biggest mistakes you make bar none.
Suze: Alright that's crypto and FTX. Gold. I have liked gold for a while now. I think I first talked to you about it in June sometime of this year, maybe June, the later part of June. And I said that gold is positioned for a breakout, in my opinion. However it didn't break out, in fact it kind of went down.
Suze: And I said, however, if you buy gold with a stock by the name of Barrick, whose symbol is G-O-L-D, it will pay you to 3% while you're holding it to see if gold starts to go up. So we don't have a lot to lose.
Suze: Currently, Gold, G-O-L-D, right, which is the symbol again of Barrick Gold Corporation, has an approximately $16.5 a share and it's now paying a 3.35% yield.
Suze: I think it is absolutely possible that you could see that go from 16 to about $20 a share. Who knows after that. I would not be doing it, just because let's see what will happen. But I'm telling those of you who already bought it,
Suze: and you've been holding it, you haven't known what to do with it because I told you to buy it at around $17 or $18 a share and now it's down at $16.5 a share,
Suze: I do think that it is very possible probable that over the long run here you could see it go to $20 a share. So if it goes really wrong and it goes below like $15.40 a share in there, right? We may then have called it totally wrong and then you might want to sell, but I just want to tell you that.
Suze: Now some bad news.
Suze: Which is the student loan forgiveness program. Are you kidding me? Some judge in Texas absolutely has put the kibosh for now on student loan forgiveness.
Suze: Most likely, that along with the other six objections, six suits, against it,
Suze: will stop this for now. So, student loan forgiveness is no longer accepting applications. If student loan forgiveness ever becomes a reality, your application, for those of you who have already been approved, there's like 100,000 of you or so that have already been approved,
Suze: you'll just get your money if that happens. But I have no doubt that this most likely is now going to end up in the Supreme Court.
Suze: And who knows what can happen there. Just something to think about. So if you have been planning not to pay your student loan, that if you only owed $10,000, you were just going to get it back, and so starting January, you didn't have to make that payment anymore,
Suze: you need to make your student loan payments now. You just need to do it. All right, everybody? I seriously, I'm as surprised that it has gotten as far as it's gotten, but given politics today, which I think on both sides is totally absurd if you want to know the truth, I cannot believe that it has gotten this far with them stopping
Suze: what is something that should absolutely happen to every single one of you.
Suze: Alright, let's just do one last bit of news before we close the Women & Money podcast, Suze School edition for today. Which is I have good news for all of you. We are about to launch tomorrow, Monday November 14th,
Suze: the Holiday Suze Sweepstakes with Alliant Credit Union. Now all of you know that I love Alliant Credit Union. I love the Ultimate Opportunity Savings Account, which by the way, starting tomorrow as well will be paying you 2.5%, we're raising interest rates so I love them.
Suze: And really what happens is once a year at the end of the year, we do a sweepstakes. Where you are automatically entered into the sweepstakes, if you have an account with the Alliant Credit Union, The Ultimate Opportunity Account. Alright? So if you have The Ultimate Opportunity Savings Account, you will automatically be entered in the sweepstakes with one entry. Got that?
Suze: The prizes this year will only be two. So two people will each win $10,000 each.
Suze: Now there is more to it than that. And here's what's so great. Tomorrow, November 14th,
Suze: all of you that have The Ultimate Opportunity Savings account will be getting an email, and that email will tell you how you can gain extra entries into the sweepstakes simply if you refer a friend or family and they join Alliant. Now you will be emailed a link,
Suze: right and you'll figure out how to do it on Thursday, I will give out that link to make sure that it's absolutely up and running for those of you who haven't yet opened up an Ultimate Opportunity Savings Account,
Suze: if you listen to the end of this podcast it will absolutely tell you exactly how you can earn $100 in just 12 months by depositing at least $100 a month for 12 consecutive months. But if you don't have someone to refer you, it's okay. Just go to my alliant, A-L-L-I-A-N-T.com/Suze and join. Just that simple.
Suze: And again, you will then be entered into the sweepstakes if you follow all the things you need to do, which is very simple. So I think that's fabulous news. So for many reasons, you should all want to participate in that. And again, just remember. Members that are already part of this, all you have to do is refer a friend or family member,
Suze: they join, you get another entry into the sweepstakes.
Suze: I have to tell you your chances of winning are really, really good.
Suze: Because if you think about how many people have done this over the years, maybe 40, you know since we've been doing it 30 or 40,000 of you became members. That's still pretty good odds when you compare that to anything else. So I would be doing that if I were you.
Suze: So I think I covered everything that I said I would cover.
Suze: That brings us to the end
Suze: of an incredibly educational Suze School, if you ask me. But until Thursday, do you love, we're back on Sunday and Thursdays? I don't know why it makes a difference because it's a podcast, but it just makes me feel so much better, I can't even tell you. So until Thursday, when Miss Travis joins us again for a
Suze: Ask KT and Suze Anything, there's really only one thing that we want for you and your money, and that is for you to be smart, strong and secure. Now you stay safe, everybody. Bye bye.
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