July 17, 2022
Listen to Podcast Episode:
On today’s episode, we go to Suze School for a lesson on being patient with our investments.
Music: Music In.
Suze: July 17, 2022. Welcome everybody to Suze School. So I'm sitting here and I'm thinking about 00:00:44
Suze: really deeply thinking about what lesson, what can we learn in school today about investing and how everything works.
Suze: and it dawns on me,
Suze: the greatest lesson that all of us need to learn
Suze: is about patience. 00:01:05
Suze: We need a new perspective on investing
Suze: because all of us
Suze: have become so
Suze: oriented to things happening so quickly.
Suze: Like I'll never forget when I got the very first Mac, I can't believe I didn't keep it. But that's besides the point,
Suze: those little square boxes
Suze: that were the 512 Macs . And I remember
Suze: my God, this is so fast, this is so great. And then as time went on, it was like, come on, why are you so slow?
Suze: And that has evolved to Macs and PCs that are so fast right now. And if we open our computer and it doesn't open up immediately, we're like, come on, come on.
Suze: It's almost as if technology has taught us how patience is not a virtue,
Suze: that everything needs to happen very, very quickly.
Suze: And even if you look at the markets, whether it be the real estate market or the stock market 00:02:14
Suze: over the past few years, everything has happened so quickly.
Suze: I mean, even after 2006, 2008, when everything went down,
Suze: when it finally turned
Suze: In May of 2009, it started to go up
Suze: and up and up the stock market
Suze: so quickly, It's not even funny.
Suze: And then we hit the pandemic
Suze: and then real estate took off so fast,
Suze: so quickly that that wasn't even funny.
Suze: Do you know that the normal increase of a piece of real estate is usually just 5% a year
Suze: if that,
Suze: but all of a sudden we started to see 20%, 30% in some areas, 40% and we started to expect that 00:03:14
Suze: we expected that the market, once it went down,
Suze: it would go right back up again
Suze: because that's what the pandemic taught us.
Suze: So we have now been wired
Suze: in a very illogical way, believe it or not,
Suze: that everything's got to happen quickly and if it doesn't happen quickly, something's wrong.
Suze: Now because of computers and because of all the other things that are out there, your little iPhones, you can look at your stocks every day
Suze: and you can watch them go up
Suze: 20 point, down 30, and you get totally confused.
Suze: We need a new perspective on investing.
Suze: The same now is happening with oil stocks. You know, oil stocks, energy stocks started to become the fabric of the stock market.
Suze: They were the only thing that went up.
Suze: Not only did XLE go up, did Devin go up? Did Pioneer go up? Did Chevron go up?
Suze: But they were paying you a fabulous dividend besides.
Suze: And then things started to turn.
Suze: And they went up quickly,
Suze: and then they went down
Suze: even quicker.
Suze: And now all of you are looking at your money going,
Suze: oh my God they went down, I've lost money, what am I gonna do? Nothing's working, and you get so seriously upset about it, you get sidetracked
Suze: from the goal of money.
Suze: And yes the goal of money is to make you feel secure.
Suze: But that's not how any of you are feeling right now as you're watching your portfolios go down.
Suze: So we need a new perspective on investing.
Suze: And so I want to start with energy stocks
Suze: right here and right now.
Suze: The greatest thing about energy stocks,
Suze: especially the ones that I've been recommending to you,
Suze: are they are still paying a serious dividend.
Suze: nine, 11%.
Suze: They are very high dividends.
Suze: Now obviously if you invested
Suze: in energy stocks, you had to do it in individual investment accounts and or retirement accounts.
Suze: You couldn't do that in your 401k. Or your 403b, or TSP, because they don't sell individual stocks.
Suze: So many of you invested
Suze: outside of your retirement accounts in these stocks.
Suze: And the great thing about these stocks, as I just said a little bit ago,
Suze: is that they pay these extraordinary dividends.
Suze: So let's project out for a few more years,
Suze: and let's say you're in your retirement now.
Suze: And now you want to start living off of this money.
Suze: Wouldn’t you want your money invested in such a place, regardless of what it's worth,
Suze: wouldn’t you want it invested in such a place that it's giving you an extraordinary income from it
Suze: regardless of the value of the stock?
Suze: As long as they're good quality stocks,
Suze: and they're paying you a fabulous dividend,
Suze: then you will never sell it. You know, way back when, can you remember your parents saying,
Suze: oh yeah, I have a lot of utility stocks. I live off the income of them.
Suze: They didn't care if the stocks went up or the stocks went up, went down, because they were not going to sell them ever.
Suze: They wanted to live off the income of those stocks. And in reality,
Suze: that is why you invest in the stock market.
Suze: Obviously you want your money to grow and grow and grow and then at the time when it makes sense to invest it in such a way, so it generates income for you.
Suze: But believe it or not, you're already invested
Suze: in a way that's going to generate income for you if you've invested in energy stocks. But yet so many of you are so upset. I should have sold, I should have done this. XLE was at 90, now it's way down there again. So I get all that.
Suze: But the great thing about dollar cost averaging,
Suze: is that as these stocks go down,
Suze: remember their dividends are fixed.
Suze: So let's just say you bought a stock, XYZ stock. XYZ energy stock.
Suze: And you purchased it
Suze: at $50 a share.
Suze: And they are paying a $2.50 a year dividend, that they pay you every quarter.
Suze: Given that you actually bought it at $50 a share, and you're getting $2.5 for it,
Suze: that is a 5% return on your money.
Suze: Now at the time,
Suze: 5% seemed fabulous given the fact that money markets and savings accounts
Suze: a year or so ago were paying nothing.
Suze: Now they're paying 1.2%, amounts like that. But when you originally bought in to these energy stocks or this example,
Suze: it's paying you five percent.
Suze: And now the energy market has started to go down.
Suze: And the stock that you bought at 50,
Suze: let's just say
Suze: it's at $25 a share.
Suze: You've lost 50% of the value,
Suze: but what has not changed is the dividend.
Suze: The dividend is still $2.50.
Suze: But now if you buy that stock,
Suze: your yield is 10%.
Suze: 10% people, which is high today and it's really going to be high in my opinion for a long long time.
Suze: Not only that,
Suze: you're now starting to dollar cost average.
Suze: If you bought 100 shares at 50,
Suze: and now it's three months later or whatever it is, you buy another 100 shares. Your average cost bases is $37.50.
Suze: If the stock is at 25, it's not impossible for it to easily get back
Suze: to $37.50.
Suze: Which is why I've been wanting you to dollar cost average,
Suze: especially in these stocks
Suze: that are Paying such tremendous dividends.
Suze: Now, let's just assume that this stock never returns.
Suze: It stays at $25 a share, maybe it goes to $20 a share.
Suze: You're still
Suze: getting your income.
Suze: And if you can just get a new perspective on investing,
Suze: where you're looking at the income that it's generating for you, versus the growth of the money,
Suze: then you wouldn't care that it went down, as long as it was a good quality stock
Suze: and the dividends were absolutely secure. Are you understanding me?
Suze: Now I know everybody loves to see
Suze: the value of their portfolios go up and up and up.
Suze: It seriously hurts, even when I look at my own portfolio and KT's portfolio to see it down the millions of dollars that it is down.
Suze: But I didn't invest for growth,
Suze: I invested for income,
Suze: what will give me the income
Suze: for me to continue to live my lifestyle?
Suze: Because you also have to remember, if you're investing outside of a retirement account,
Suze: and you invest in something that's $20 a share,
Suze: and now all of a sudden it goes all the way up to
Suze: $100 a share, you have an $80 gain and it did it in a very short period of time,
Suze: under a year, if you sell it,
Suze: half of that's going to go to ordinary income taxes via the state and federal tax levels, assuming your tax bracket.
Suze: So rather than making $80, you really only made 40.
Suze: 40 is still a lot,
Suze: but then what do you do with that money?
Suze: What do you do?
Suze: So I'm not saying that you want to invest in things that go down. That's not what I'm saying here.
Suze: I'm saying to you that you have to think long term.
Suze: And the reason why you have a portion of your portfolio invested where? In good quality dividend paying stocks,
Suze: that are paying you very high yield and you're still getting that with energy stocks,
Suze: that that will accomplish it for you.
Suze: Now. Maybe there will come a day when energy stocks aren't worth anything. Their dividends are, you know in danger because they're not making money. That day is not soon.
Suze: And if you think that energy is not going to come back,
Suze: I have a bridge to sell you.
Suze: Because we still have not answered the original problem of why we bought energy stocks to begin with.
Suze: And we bought energy stocks to begin with because of the war in Ukraine.
Suze: Because of what was going to happen
Suze: with Saudi Arabia and our relationship with them,
Suze: and how much oil really is going to be needed.
Suze: Because, the electrical cars that are being built, and that everybody wants to buy right now, a lot of them, you can't get the parts for.
Suze: We've also seen that China has still not come back online.
Suze: That they're still not driving, that things like that still aren't happening.
Suze: So we're going to have a tremendous demand for oil
Suze: shortly here,
Suze: and that is in my opinion going to cause the price of oil to go up,
Suze: which then will be reflected back into the energy stocks.
Suze: Now obviously you're not just invested in energy stocks. You're also invested where? In the Vanguard total stock market index fund,
Suze: in the staple fund, X-L-P, you're invested in Noble, N-O-B-L, you're invested in things that are stable and totally diversified.
Suze: And the reason that I want you to keep dollar cost averaging there,
Suze: if you can, is because these markets
Suze: are not going to go up
Suze: until they solve the problem of inflation. Sure they might go up like they did on Friday.
Suze: But they'll go back down again.
Suze: They will not go up
Suze: until inflation has peaked,
Suze: and there is absolute evidence that inflation is turning around, and going down and down and down.
Suze: Which is why I have been such an advocate of Series I bonds. And trying to figure out every possible way that you can put more and more money into Series I bonds.
Suze: Which is also why I suggested on last Thursday’s podcast to seriously look into the gift box,
Suze: for those of you who have purchased Series I bonds, to think about purchasing another $10,000 in a gift box for somebody.
Suze: Maybe that somebody can purchase up to $10,000 in their gift box for you, and then you decide when you want to deliver them.
Suze: So that is a way that you can also right now take advantage of the incredibly high interest rates that I bonds are offering you. Remember everybody, if you haven't bought I bonds yet,
Suze: don't be stupid.
Suze: Like what are you thinking?
Suze: Really, if you have passed up buying an I Bond,
Suze: you're not smart enough to listen to the Suze Orman Women & Money podcast. I'm serious about that.
Suze: Because you are passing up one of the greatest opportunities in your life, and don't sit there and tell me you don't have $10,000. The minimum is $25. You could buy $25 a month if you wanted to.
Suze: $50 a month.
Suze: So when I see you or when I've talked to you, and I've asked you did you buy I bonds yet? You say to me no, it's only $10,000. I really want to slap you when you say that, number one. And number two, you go,
Suze: I don't really want to lock my money up for a year. I'd rather just let it sit
Suze: and do nothing really.
Suze: What are you thinking?
Suze: Opportunities like this
Suze: don't come along very often. This is the first time it's come along at this rate,
Suze: with this inflation rate, in the past 41 years. We have not seen this.
Suze: And remember the 9.26% interest rate,
Suze: that the I bonds are paying right now, were given when inflation was like at 8.6%.
Suze: Inflation came in higher. It came in at 9.1%. And we are not that far away from November.
Suze: Now. Is inflation going to come less 00:18:17
Suze: in the next months or so? I don't know. 00:18:20
Suze: But I don't see inflation coming down to the 2% area, which is what the Feds are looking for overnight.
Suze: It's not gonna happen. So stop thinking that everything is happening this quickly because it's not. This is here to stay
Suze: for a probably a serious period of time.
Suze: Could be a year, it could be two years. But you do not solve this problem,
Suze: that low interest rates, by the way created,
Suze: by simply raising interest rates a little bit.
Suze: They have to start raising them a lot. Now on the July 26, 27th meeting, that's coming up when the Feds will readjust again,
Suze: all of a sudden they're pricing in a 1% interest rate.
Suze: And what that will do to everybody is that should probably trickle down even though it's not directly correlated to mortgage rates, should start to continue to go up.
Suze: We'll see if they do or they don't.
Suze: We should start to see, again, hopefully Treasury notes and bills go up. And I say hopefully because if we can get interest rates in Treasuries to go up significantly,
Suze: and interest rates then start to go down, the Feds have started to control everything and then they start to lower the Fed funds rate, that's when all of you are absolutely gonna wanna be in 20 and 30 year Treasury bonds.
Suze: Because if they start to go down you can make 18,20,30% in Treasuries with no risk to your money, or just keep them because you've locked in a really great interest rate.
Suze: Am I making sense to all of you?
Suze: So just to be clear to go back for one second, to Series I bonds and gifting bonds,
Suze: when you open up your own individual
Suze: I Bond account,
Suze: and gift bonds cannot be in a trust account or a business account. They're only in an individual personal account.
Suze: And you open that up,
Suze: you'll see that you also have the ability to gift anybody you want,
Suze: up to $10,000 a year.
Suze: The difference is you can't deliver those bonds
Suze: to that person if that person has already for this year, for instance, invested the maximum $10,000 in Series I bonds in a personal account.
Suze: You can't deliver it to them. But that doesn't mean that it doesn't grow and grow at today's interest rates that I bonds are offering.
Suze: So let's say you do that.
Suze: And now for six months you earn 9.62%, or maybe the next rate after your six months are up, it's at another 9.62%.
Suze: Six months after that, maybe it goes to 7%, 6 months after that, maybe it goes to 5%.
Suze: And then you decide interest rates are going down, I bonds really aren't offering you much more now than you could get anywhere else. Let's just say that's true.
Suze: That's when you decide to deliver them to the person you bought them for,
Suze: and if somebody bought them for you, they deliver it to you.
Suze: To your treasurydirect.gov account.
Suze: Just in that year, you don't purchase new I bonds for yourself.
Suze: So you can be gifted
Suze: whatever is in that gift box that somebody bought for you, or you bought for somebody else.
Suze: So at $10,000, and let's just say it stays at 9.62%, that's $962 a year
Suze: for the interest.
Suze: Let's say, then it goes down to 8%. Now you have $10,962 making 8%.
Suze: So it's growing.
Suze: And whatever that growing amount happens to become,
Suze: that is the amount that you can deliver. And I keep using the word deliver because that is the actual word that's used to describe when you deliver a gift to somebody.
Suze: So everything that is in that box for them,
Suze: no matter what the value is,
Suze: you can deliver that gift box to that person, and that person could deliver you
Suze: a gift box as well, if you have somebody you can do that with.
Suze: Now KT and I actually did that last week.
Suze: And I have to tell you, I think that was one of the most brilliant ideas I've ever come up with. 00:23:37
Suze: If you have minors,
Suze: you can only do it in a minor account under your own individual treasurydirect
Suze: .gov account.
Suze: When you deliver a gift box to somebody, that person has to have their own treasurydirect.gov account. Because that's where it gets delivered to. 00:24:01
Suze: You do not owe taxes on that money, they do not owe taxes on that money.
Suze: That money 00:24:07
Suze: stays nontaxed until you decide you want to redeem some of that money.
Suze: And you don't have to redeem it for 30 years from the time you made the purchase.
Suze: So every I Bond that you purchase has its own 30 year term.
Suze: Remember I bonds cannot be cashed in within the first year at all. From years 2 to 5,
Suze: you'll pay a three-month interest penalty. So if you're doing this,
Suze: hey, I wouldn't have a problem keeping them for five years at all.
Suze: When you do a gift, you deliver it,
Suze: nobody owes taxes on that gift
Suze: until that person redeems
Suze: a portion, or all of their bonds up to them.
Suze: Now, am I making sense to you?
Suze: The other thing is, let's go back just a little bit more
Suze: to the Vanguard total stock market index fund, as well as XLP.
Suze: really have held
Suze: from the time we said let's buy them. Do I wish I had told you to buy them earlier? Of course I do.
Suze: So originally when we said to buy them there were about $78 a share they are now, about $73 a share.
Suze: So we're down about 6.4%, but we're still making about a 2% dividend, and I do think it's totally possible
Suze: that you'll see that continue to go back up again, but on some level if you compare that
Suze: to the total demise of so many stocks that are down, 20,30, 40, 50%,
Suze: it's a stable way
Suze: to invest and hopefully get growth.
Suze: So I wouldn't be freaked about any of this.
Suze: So we all come back to the title of this Suze School, which is, we need a new perspective on investing.
Suze: We need something, where you start looking at your money,
Suze: in the terms of what you really want from it, not right today,
Suze: not in the next month, not in the next three months,
Suze: but what do you want from it long term? Five years from now, 10 years from now, 30 or 40 years from now, there might be those of you out there,
Suze: that are old like me, and what you want from it is simply income.
Suze: If that's true,
Suze: this is such a fabulous time for you because the stocks are down, which means stocks that pay dividends, their dividend yields are up,
Suze: I explained that to you at the beginning of this podcast, so you could set yourself up so nicely
Suze: if you didn't worry about the fluctuations of the market, and you only looked at the income that it was providing for you.
Suze: So that's just something for you to think about. Also for those of you who are doing conversions from traditional IRAs or 401ks into 00:27:30
Suze: retirement accounts like a Roth IRA,
Suze: what a fabulous time, because stocks are down,
Suze: so you're not going to owe as much income when you do a conversion.
Suze: So for instance, it was January, you had a stock that was $100 a share,
Suze: and you were going to convert it
Suze: to a Roth IRA.
Suze: You would pay income tax on $100 a share.
Suze: Now that stock is at $30.
Suze: You still have to owe income tax on $100 a share.
Suze: Now if you were to convert it, you're only going to owe income tax on a stack that's at $30 a share. Far less than 100.
Suze: So there are really silver linings in a market that goes down, things that you could take advantage of, that would have cost you so much more
Suze: If these markets were going up and up.
Suze: I have found that over all my years of investing, the most money and the most income
Suze: that I've set up for myself,
Suze: happened to happen in the years 2007 and 2008.
Suze: I took total advantage of that.
Suze: I also took total advantage of interest rates being high back then, and things that were going on, and I was able to buy municipal bonds for 4,5 and 6% tax-free that I still own.
Suze: So during down markets, rather than being depressed, rather than not knowing what to do, I want you to get a new perspective on investing.
Suze: Because these are the years of opportunity.
Suze: These are the years, whether you are looking for income, or you are looking to make your money grow,
Suze: or whatever it may be, these are the years that you set that foundation.
Suze: What you also have to do however, is set your expectations correct.
Suze: Because you are not going to see these stocks in my opinion that were at $400 a share, and now they're at 40, be back at $400 a share in one year from now. Is not going to happen.
Suze: The other day,
Suze: I said on Ask Suze and KT Anything, that it could take until 2027.
Suze: And I meant that.
Suze: I absolutely meant that.
Suze: So we need time here everybody.
Suze: So I don't want you to continue to go, oh my God, what should I do?
Suze: And now I just want to touch on real estate for one second very quickly here.
Suze: You have to keep the perspective of real estate,
Suze: really in line.
Suze: Because a lot of you have said to me, I'm getting out of the market and I'm going into real estate.
Suze: There's a big difference between the stock market and real estate.
Suze: The stock market, you can sell it at any time you want.
Suze: Real estate, you never know when you might get yourself in a situation where nobody is interested in buying right now.
Suze: So real estate is an illiquid investment,
Suze: you cannot sell it immediately like you can with stocks, there is no cost to keeping stocks, real estate, you have property taxes, you have insurance, and you have maintenance.
Suze: So I just ask you all to think about that.
Suze: Don't use what happened in the past two years to the real estate that maybe you bought, and think that that's going to continue. It is not going to continue. 00:31:29
Suze: Real estate will absolutely slow down. I've said to you before, I don't think it will go down, down.
Suze: Do I think people who are selling are going to have to lower their expectations in terms of the time to sell as well as their selling price? Oh you bet I do.
Suze: But that doesn't mean you're going to lose out on your investment.
Suze: So if you bought something for $300,000 and all of a sudden it's at $400,000 now,
Suze: we'll have to see what happens. But real estate is still a pretty solid investment. You just have to be careful with it and not go crazy. 00:32:12
Suze: Alright that is what I wanted to tell all of you today.
Suze: Because so many of you are sending in emails to asksuzepodcast, S-U-Z-E, email@example.com to ask questions that we answer on Thursday’s Ask KT and Suze Anything podcast,
Suze: you're worried. You're really really worried.
Suze: The other thing that I just want to reiterate is inflation is not going away anytime soon.
Suze: Yes I understand that commodity prices have gone down.
Suze: Lumber, and all those kinds of things, aluminum, far cheaper right now than they were.
Suze: That I haven't really seen gasoline go down that much.
Suze: I haven't seen food go down.
Suze: So until they tackle inflation,
Suze: until they get decreasing CPI numbers,
Suze: I don't think you're going to see this market go straight up,
Suze: or really react the way that you want. So I just want you to remember that.
Suze: All right everybody.
Suze: Are you taking advantage of the Alliant Credit Union account? Have you all also gone to my Alliant.com to check it out?
Suze: Now remember sometime this year we're going to have a sweepstakes coming up,
Suze: and you want to be able to be entered in that so to take advantage of that. And one other thing that is going to happen I hope in August, maybe September you're gonna love.
Suze: So take advantage of these little things.
Suze: Also I do want to say one other thing.
Suze: There's nothing wrong sitting in cash.
Suze: If that is where you feel safe and sound, and you want to have a serious sum of cash, just make sure that it is protected by either FDIC insurance or NCUA insurance for credit unions. I did another podcast a while ago
Suze: and how you can increase
Suze: that $250,000 limit
Suze: so you might want to listen to that podcast.
Suze: But there's nothing wrong with that.
Suze: Again, I still like Treasury bills, I still like Treasury notes. Don't really go out further than five years though everybody.
Suze: And there you go.
Suze: So that
Suze: is the Suze School for today,
Suze: and I hope not only did it give you a new perspective on investing,
Suze: I hope that it inspires you
Suze: to remain safe,
Suze: strong and secure.
Suze: Talk to you on Thursday, which is KT's birthday. Yeah, everybody. Bye bye.
Music: Music Out
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