Finacial Planning, Financial Security, Investing, Stock Market, Stocks
May 22, 2022
Listen to Podcast Episode:
For this Suze School, Suze details the current economic conditions and explains why it is so important for us to buckle down and save more so we can weather the coming financial storms to be safe, strong and secure.
Suze: May 22, 2022.
Suze: Oh hi
Suze: everybody. This was a hard week I think.
Suze: And the reason that I think it was hard is that more and more as you are turning on your news, you are seeing the markets are going
Suze: down, we're down 1165 points. We're this we're that because
Suze: everybody really,
Suze: is freaking out
Suze: and on some level
Suze: rightfully so
Suze: there really aren't any answers
Suze: To solve the two problems.
Suze: The big problems that we're in right now
Suze: and those two big problems are inflation
Suze: and a supply shortage.
Suze: And I don't know,
Suze: I don't know how they're going to get either of those problems to go away. Honestly,
Suze: it's going to be far more difficult
Suze: than any of us have any ideas And as long as there is a supply shortage meaning we can't get the food, we can't get the stuff that cars are made out of whatever it may be
Suze: as long as we can't get it.
Suze: The price of those things are going to go up and up and up
Suze: as you know recently. And I will post pictures on this. I forgot to do it to tell you the truth
Suze: that KT
Suze: wanted to have a greenhouse built for her garden and not a greenhouse out of glass, but like one of those pool enclosures that have screens on them. She wanted that over her garden. So all the little wild animals that live on the island couldn't get to her plants
Suze: and we did that and I was talking to Manuel who came over from Florida to build this for us. Fabulous, fabulous person.
Suze: I said Manuel, if we had done this a year ago,
Suze: how much would it have cost us compared to today?
Suze: And he said, oh Suze, it would have been at least half of what you're paying right now. And I said, why is that? He said Suze, I can't get any supplies and the cost of my supplies to even do something like this is so much higher
Suze: what they're charging me. So I have to charge you.
Suze: So supply issue is a really big problem.
Suze: And the reason that I'm saying that I don't think that problem is going to go away anytime soon is because
Suze: over the years we became so dependent on making sure that we were able to get the goods at the cheapest cost so that more money could be made and blah blah blah blah. We became totally dependent
Suze: on places like China to manufacture everything that we needed.
Suze: And what's sad about that is that China
Suze: has totally locked down
Suze: so we can't get the supplies because most of them aren't working right now
Suze: when they do open up
Suze: and they start to do everything and manufacture everything again.
Suze: Can you imagine the shipping problem now that we're going to recreate because everybody wants to order
Suze: and we still haven't solved the shipping problem once the ships get
Suze: to the United States, how to unload them. That still hasn't gotten that much better.
Suze: this isn't a problem that's going to go away for a long time.
Suze: So I could sit here and I could tell you all the effects that this had on that and blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. But the real truth of the matter is
Suze: we have to figure out what do you do during times like this?
Suze: And I thought about my career and all the years that I've been either on the air or mainly when I was a financial advisor. Actually seeing clients,
Suze: what did they do, what did we need them to do over all of these years?
Suze: And one thing that I realized a long time ago and I'll tell you a story about it
Suze: is that it's not exactly what the economy does,
Suze: it's what we do with the money that we make was the key
Suze: to whether a family could live
Suze: in retirement easily or was it going to be a struggle for them.
Suze: So it was years and years and years ago
Suze: when I was doing the retirement planning for Pacific Gas and Electric. Now I know I've told this story before, but I really want to tell it again because it brings it home.
Suze: Hundreds and hundreds of people came to me
Suze: to do their retirement planning for them.
Suze: But what really always fascinated me
Suze: was this,
Suze: there were employees
Suze: that when they retired
Suze: Had a few $100,000 at most in their 401K.
Suze: Besides that they didn't have a lot of money.
Suze: And when we sat down to do their planning for them,
Suze: they were easily able to retire and their money would last them given their lifestyle for the rest of their lives. And you know, I still hear from many of those people believe it or not. And they always write me and say thank you Suze, we're doing so great, I can't even tell you.
Suze: And I always write them back and I say,
Suze: don't thank me
Suze: thank you
Suze: for the way that you spend money, the way that you save money, the way that you live life.
Suze: And I always compared those people
Suze: with the really high paid executives that would come in to see me.
Suze: And those people,
Suze: They had millions of dollars in their 401 case
Suze: They had pensions of $13 $14,000 a month.
Suze: And because of their lifestyle
Suze: they could not afford to retire.
Suze: And if they continued to live that lifestyle
Suze: given what was about to come in the future years and continue to do the things that they did,
Suze: they would eventually go bankrupt.
Suze: And I am sure that many of them did.
Suze: And I feel like on some level
Suze: we're kind of there again
Suze: because what's key to your success here in my opinion
Suze: isn't necessarily what you do with the money that you have invested.
Suze: It's what you do with the money that you are making.
Suze: And I really think at this point in time
Suze: it's very important to conserve conserve conserve now. I know in a previous podcast I said the number one thing I wanted you all to do was cut back on your expenses and conserve and I'm sure that went in one ear and out the other
Suze: and that is because most of us,
Suze: I think things aren't gonna change, it's gonna be okay, we'll get out of this. I still have a paycheck coming in. What's the big deal?
Suze: I'm sure that there are many people out there
Suze: That retired earlier. They decided they had enough money in their 401Ks that it would be able to last them forever. That as long as they got a four or 5% growth rate on it or whatever they would be okay.
Suze: But many of those people have never experienced what we are experiencing right now
Suze: and what we're experiencing right now in a very certain way
Suze: is worse than before. The pandemic
Suze: is worse on certain levels than 2007 and 2008,
Suze: Worse than many of the times that we went down significantly, we went down 84% at one time, we went down 54% at one time. So really what we have going on in the stock market right now doesn't look so bad.
Suze: But that doesn't mean it won't continue down.
Suze: My fear is I don't think it's going to come back
Suze: When it comes back as quickly as it did in 2020 by any means because so much has changed.
Suze: So I think it's really important
Suze: that you want to make sure that you can serve you not only conserve the amount of money that you're spending, you try to conserve as most as you possibly can from what
Suze: From having to take withdrawals from your 401K. IRAs or other retirement accounts
Suze: because the more you can conserve
Suze: when these markets do turn around and they do go back up and they will eventually it will be awhile yet.
Suze: Then you have more money and then you can start living a little bit more freely.
Suze: But right now
Suze: if you can conserve, if you cut back
Suze: you don't need to take as much money out of your retirement accounts,
Suze: you're able to save more and more money in your emergency savings accounts.
Suze: But here is the Suze School for today.
Suze: Many of you have listened to me thankfully and you created in 8-12-month emergency savings plan.
Suze: However, you created it based on expenses that I think are under what you're currently spending.
Suze: You created it when gasoline was $2 a gallon versus almost four or $5 a gallon when food was 50% less than it is right now.
Suze: You did it at a time when your expenses were so much less.
Suze: So I need you to take the time and go back through your expenses as to what they are today. What does it cost you to drive your car? What is it costing you on your home equity line of credit now,
Suze: what is it costing you on your credit cards? What is it costing you for food for going out to eat for all of those things? Because there is no way possible that it's costing you the same today as it was six or seven or eight months ago. What is it costing you for rent?
Suze: Rent has gone up dramatically,
Suze: which affects everything. So you need an even bigger pool
Suze: Because your 12 months of expenses today
Suze: is far greater
Suze: than what it was a while ago.
Suze: So you have to take that action
Suze: because if you don't, the lesson of not taking that Suze School recommendation will be, you will find as things go on
Suze: it is possible that you will eat through your emergency fund faster than you know.
Suze: And then what you will, you do, you will go take a loan from your 401K.
Suze: And the biggest mistake next Suze School
Suze: That you can make right now is to take a loan from your 401K.
Suze: And why is that?
Suze: Because you're going to be taking a loan or selling stocks to be able to take that loan or mutual funds or exchange traded funds, whatever your money is invested in because you don't have cash sitting in a 401K.
Suze: Usually you have it 100% invested. You're going to be selling at a time when the markets are already down considerably,
Suze: They're down anywhere depending what you're invested in from 13 to maybe 28 or 30%.
Suze: This is not the time that you want to be selling anything
Suze: that's good quality maybe pays you a dividend is making money, has cash and all of those things
Suze: because if you do,
Suze: you'll miss out,
Suze: it's going to take you five years to pay back that loan.
Suze: And during that time the market is absolutely going to start to turn around if it's like traditional markets and let's hope that it is
Suze: and you will have lost out on the biggest gains
Suze: and I don't want that to happen to you next.
Suze: As you know, I'm of the belief that we will be going into recession and I so hope I'm wrong either at the end of this year or beginning of 2023.
Suze: And as these corporations or places that you are working and I've said this before on previous podcasts
Suze: start to have to really cut down there expenses and everything so that they're showing better earnings so that they call it "the street" Wall Street likes them. So their stocks can go back up again. They may have to do significant layoffs
Suze: And what if you're working for one of those companies, you took a loan from your 401K.
Suze: And now you're laid off.
Suze: But what if you're not just laid off? What if you're in an accident or you get sick and you have to quit
Suze: because you can't work
Suze: Now. Any part of that loan that you haven't paid back could be taxable to you plus a 10% penalty depending on your age now. Why did I say could be taxable to you
Suze: because many of you are still investing in traditional 401 Ks or traditional IRAs, which means pretax you rather get the tax write off
Suze: today and have to pay taxes on it later on for those of you who have listened to me and you're putting money into a Roth 401K . 403 B. T. S. P. Or a Roth IRA,
Suze: You've got it made in the shade because even with the 401 Ks , you may have to pay a 10% penalty.
Suze: You might not have to pay taxes on a lot of that money at all.
Suze: So it's important for you to understand
Suze: that you have to be invested in the right places
Suze: Roth retirement accounts and you have to really conserve and know what your expenses happen to be. Those are two things that you need to do again, bolstering your emergency from and making sure your investments are going into a Roth account of some kind
Suze: now in the past.
Suze: I've obviously told you try investing in this, try investing in that, let's do this. It should hold up,
Suze: nothing is holding here.
Suze: The only thing that's kind of holding our energy stocks.
Suze: Everything else including consumer staples, which everybody is just like what the heck just happened
Suze: have gone down
Suze: so people are starting to freak out
Suze: and they are just selling anything and everything and they don't care.
Suze: Now, thankfully consumer staples or the ETF XLP pays you a dividend.
Suze: Hopefully you did a dollar cost averaging technique because remember I told all of you do not put lump sums into anything at this point in time
Suze: and it will be a long time, I think before I tell you to do so, just so you know,
Suze: if you keep dollar cost averaging into certain things,
Suze: they've got to turn around,
Suze: but I don't know when that will be.
Suze: And the way that you take the sting out of your losses is by dollar cost averaging, You keep buying things that you want to hold at the times when the markets go down particularly, but like once a month, once every three months, whatever it may be
Suze: to lower your price
Suze: and therefore when the markets do turn around
Suze: eventually you'll make even more money, but it's very difficult to do that
Suze: very difficult
Suze: in terms of energy,
Suze: A lot of you invested in Excel E in 2020
Suze: and you've made a lot of money,
Suze: you invested in Chevron,
Suze: you invested in Devon you invested in other energy companies that I like,
Suze: I still think energy is the place to be.
Suze: And the reason that I think that because a lot of you are like Suze, what's wrong with you? Oil? We need to go green, we need to go green. I know,
Suze: but I want people to make green as well,
Suze: I want them to be able to have someplace that hopefully will work for them.
Suze: And the reason that I like energy
Suze: and the reason that energy still gets hit every once in a while is that china is shut down
Suze: and when they do open up again, that will help the consumption of energy, meaning may make the prices go back up again.
Suze: But one of the main reasons is this,
Suze: you know, Europe
Suze: has been really ahead of us in terms of climate change
Suze: and they really wanted to invest heavily in solar and wind and nuclear, even though nuclear was like, I don't think so,
Suze: and that was the direction they were going,
Suze: but they found that they couldn't produce enough energy to meet the demand so that they had to become dependent again on Russia.
Suze: And we all know the story about Russia, none of us want to buy anything from Russia because of what they're doing to Ukraine
Suze: and who knows what's going to happen
Suze: is Russia going to get into a war with NATO
Suze: possibly, maybe even, probably
Suze: you can just see the whole thing is like where is all of this going? And none of us have any answers. But because of that, you have places like Europe now saying,
Suze: you know what, forget climate for right now, let's start investing more in oil and doing it ourselves or figuring it out ourselves so that we don't have to be dependent on Russia necessarily for oil.
Suze: And is that going to happen here in the United States as well? Will you have companies like Schlumberger and Halliburton and all those starting to do what they need to do? So we're not as dependent on anybody for oil as well. At the same time that we are developing
Suze: greener forms of energy,
Suze: they have to do something about oil.
Suze: That is why I still like it.
Suze: Oil can go down to almost $80 a barrel for these companies still to be profitable.
Suze: We'll see what happens. But I think we equally have as good a chance for oil depending
Suze: could go to 130 or 140 a barrel
Suze: and therefore, you know, we're still right around 110 - 120 a barrel.
Suze: We'll see what happens to the stocks. But the problem is this
Suze: when I tell you to do something
Suze: and something changes, Maybe you don't listen to the podcast or maybe I don't mention it for whatever reason
Suze: things can turn around and go right back down.
Suze: So you have to make a decision on your own
Suze: as to are you comfortable in it, does it make you feel secure? How do you feel when it goes up? How do you feel when it goes down and all of that? You know, a woman sent an email in to the podcast and said Suze, I need your advice.
Suze: My advisor says to sell Chevron,
Suze: what do you think?
Suze: And I kind of went off the charts at this person, the advisor. But anyway, right at the time I think Chevron was around $165 a share.
Suze: Since then it's gone up to 170 something, it's gone down to 161 something, it's back at like 167 right now.
Suze: But overall it's still paying a very very nice dividend.
Suze: And again, she didn't say if this stock of hers was in a retirement account or not,
Suze: but if you sell a stock that's outside of a retirement account,
Suze: the problem with that is you owe taxes on it.
Suze: So you have to take that into consideration.
Suze: But these stocks are going to go way up way down the E T F S like XLE going to go way up way down, same thing with Devon,
Suze: same thing with Pioneer,
Suze: one of my favorite oil companies is Pioneer symbol P XD and I believe I told you this a while ago. Again,
Suze: their goal P XD is to have the highest dividend on the stock market.
Suze: So the regular dividends like 4.5% something like that. But because this company is so cash rich,
Suze: They're giving you extra dividends and right now that dividend comes to almost 10 or 11%.
Suze: So at least you're making something when these markets are going down
Suze: And again, hopefully energy will stay where it is now. I thought staples were going to stay and I was wrong, they're down about 10%.
Suze: You're going to have to decide do you want to stay in, do you want to get out, what do you want to do?
Suze: And that brings us to the next lesson of Suze School,
Suze: what is it that you want to do?
Suze: Because you cannot at this point in time
Suze: really just rely on all the advice that's out there
Suze: because really nobody really knows what to do.
Suze: I mean, the greatest advice that Warren Buffett is giving everybody right now is if you're invested properly, don't look at your portfolios any more,
Suze: just put them away, dollar cost average into whatever you want to do once a month or every three months and just wait,
Suze: by the way, one of Warren Buffett's top holdings happens to be Chevron that he just recently bought just so you know,
Suze: however, that's not me touting Chevron
Suze: I don't really care. I actually like Devon and P XD almost even better than Chevron to tell you the truth
Suze: you're going to have to know what do you need to do to make yourself feel secure?
Suze: I do not. As many people do have a problem with you having a lot of money in cash.
Suze: Or U. S. Treasury bills or notes
Suze: or even bonds at this point in time.
Suze: Again, I want to reiterate.
Suze: I know you know, I don't like any type of bond fund. I don't care that I don't like it.
Suze: If you are already still in a bond fund just stay there
Suze: because bonds are starting to exhibit a lot of sideways activities
Suze: which means that they may just stay here for a while.
Suze: So just stay in
Suze: and I think you will be just fine.
Suze: But cash
Suze: is what you really want to pile up.
Suze: And again a great way to put cash in your Alliant Credit Union. Now, it will not surprise me
Suze: within the next week or two and I have no idea if this is true or not. Everybody, if you don't see credit unions across the board
Suze: start to raise interest rates,
Suze: They very well could go 2.75%, maybe 1%. We'll see.
Suze: But if Alliant happens for instance to raise their interest rates to 1% and again please I don't have any insight on this at all. I don't have a clue. But let's just say they did, what a fabulous place for you to put money that you could access any single time
Suze: that you wanted without penalty and if you are out there and you have not opened up
Suze: the ultimate opportunity savings account yet. What are you waiting for?
Suze: If you just put in $100 a month, you open up the account that month, you put in $100
Suze: And then you put in $100 every single month thereafter and you have $1,200 at least in that account.
Suze: 12 months later you're going to get $100 bonus.
Suze: So you really need to think about that.
Suze: So if you haven't done it yet, you really should go to my alliant dot com. M Y A L L I A N T dot com again please. know, I do not make a penny. If you open up an Alliant account or not
Suze: that has nothing to do with why I am telling you to do this. But this is the time that I want you to build up money
Suze: and I want you to build up cash in a place that I know has the integrity that when interest rates are going up like they're going up now they're going to make sure that you get a higher interest rate as soon as they can as well.
Suze: So can you just do that
Suze: and I have no doubt by the way, everybody that sometime this year
Suze: we will be offering a sweepstakes
Suze: and you don't want to miss out on That. Anyway. Just say now where was I
Suze: it doesn't matter where I was, here's where I want to be.
Suze: I want to be the Professor of Safety right now.
Suze: I think it's important that all of us stay safe and secure
Suze: and I think the best way to do that
Suze: is you just leave your stock portfolios alone again assuming
Suze: that you are invested in good quality stocks. You have diversification. Most of them are paying you a dividend E. T. F. S whatever it may be
Suze: and you just keep doing it
Suze: as long as you have time on your side
Suze: again I have to reiterate for those of you who are in retirement and you need the money.
Suze: I really hope that you have that cash cushion like the Ultimate Retirement Guide for 50 Plus told you that you all needed. Did you read the book, did you hear my PBS special? I've said it for so long now
Suze: so that you don't have to touch your stocks. One thing I just want you to know
Suze: recently I looked over all the returns of all the major financial advisors out there that have target funds that they offered to all of you.
Suze: There is not one target fund
Suze: That isn't down at least 18% to like 13%.
Suze: There was nowhere to run. There is nowhere to hide in this kind of a market.
Suze: I'm just telling you that
Suze: maybe gold.
Suze: I don't have a problem if you start investing little by little in G. L. D.
Suze: The gold E. T. F. Something that you might just want to think about. It has held up more
Suze: than Bitcoin.
Suze: Bitcoin. I told you concerns me
Suze: That if it breaks 27,200 which it could
Suze: The next stop is 20,000, the next stop after that is 14,000.
Suze: So it's not impossible that you might see it go down.
Suze: It's also not impossible that if for whatever reason technology stocks and things like that start to go up you might see Bitcoin at 42,000 before you know it
Suze: but only invest in Bitcoin with money that you do not need for a long period of time money you can afford to lose
Suze: and money that you know is very very speculative.
Suze: You have to be careful there.
Suze: So that's the Suze School for today. I will be giving a webinar on May 24th. You would go to Suze Orman dot com slash webinar and you could register there for free and who knows what I'll say.
Suze: You know I have to follow Reed Tracy who's the CEO of Hay House he asked me questions so I have to answer
Suze: but you really have the scoop here as to what I think.
Suze: So I do think just so you know that it is possible we might have little ups in the market for a week or two
Suze: and then they're going to turn around and go right back down until inflation is solved.
Suze: It is very possible you could see the NASDAQ which is all tech stocks go down easily another 14%
Suze: You could see the Standard and Poor's easily go down another 10%.
Suze: But anyway you look at it,
Suze: this is not a market that's going to start to turn around here and go up,
Suze: just know that
Suze: it can go up for short periods of time but not for the long run again, you know how I feel about I bonds, I bonds, I bonds, I bonds till they are coming out of your ears
Suze: because I think inflation is here to stay and I think the interest rates that you're going to get on I bonds over this next year or two, you are going to thank me for it big time
Suze: again I still like us t bills us notes and bonds. I know I'm repeating myself but sometimes I need to say it twice for you to really get it.
Suze: the main thing is this
Suze: you have to know what it is that you need to do, what is the goal of your money,
Suze: what you needed to do for you and then you need to take the actions to make sure that happens. The best action you can take once again
Suze: is spend less and save more.
Suze: Got that
Suze: alright until Thursday there's really only one thing that I want you to do, and that is for you to say safe,
Suze: strong and most of all secure. See you then.
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