Podcast Episode - Suze School: What to Expect When Investing in 2023
January 15, 2023
Listen to Podcast Episode:
On today’s episode, Suze talks about rising costs and then goes into detail about what to expect when investing this year in the stock market, gold, bitcoin and more.
Podcast Transcript:
00:00:32
Suze: January 15, 2023.
00:00:37
Suze: Again, time is passing quickly anyway, Suze O here and welcome to the women and money podcast as well as everybody smart enough to listen, tomorrow is Martin Luther King Day.
00:00:54
Suze: So that truly is a day that we need to celebrate. I also really want to send out my prayers to everybody in Selma, Alabama, to everybody in California that's being affected by the weather and the rain and the mud.
00:01:14
Suze: But I want us all to take what's happening in this world
00:01:20
Suze: as a sign that just because you own real estate doesn't mean that nothing is ever gonna happen to you
00:01:29
Suze: just because you're doing this or doing that things can happen and it is your job, it is your job to be prepared for the what ifs of life.
00:01:43
Suze: And I want to say that because I know today is Suze School and I know today many of you are just so excited because I'm going to tell you about what I think about the stock market, about gold, about Bitcoin. About whatever comes out of my mouth at the time. I'm telling it to you because I never quite know til it happens. But no matter what I say today,
00:02:09
Suze: anything can happen that changes that
00:02:15
Suze: Everything will change if for whatever reason the government shuts down because they don't increase the debt ceiling.
00:02:23
Suze: So all of us are vulnerable to nature. All of us are vulnerable to what the congress decides to do. All of us are vulnerable, what happens in Ukraine and what where that goes and possibly North Korea. And who knows what can happen.
00:02:45
Suze: So it is really, really important that you understand that you understand that
00:02:53
Suze: because no matter what I say, no matter what anybody else says, things can change. So how do you protect yourself? You make sure that you have significant amounts of money invested in a way that no matter what happens, you are safe and sound. And one of those ways is really through what? Treasury bills
00:03:22
Suze: and notes at this particular point in time or certificates of deposits.
00:03:30
Suze: But you have to make sure that you have a substantial sum of money that's generating income for you. That no matter what happens, you are what you are secure.
00:03:45
Suze: So I'm going to go over everything that I think, but you have to make sure that you have a protection plan in place now. I am not being a doom and gloomer here, I'm just being somebody who, even with my own money, I make sure that no matter what happens, that the amount of money that I have protected is enough that we can live on and be okay.
00:04:14
Suze: Remember one of the laws of money you need to invest in the known
00:04:20
Suze: versus the unknown. So just make sure that you're known is always taken care of.
00:04:28
Suze: So this morning,
00:04:30
Suze: KT was making out a list of things to order from Costco.
00:04:36
Suze: We're in Florida right now and we're leaving later this afternoon to go back to the island, we always come back once a month around the seventh for a few days. So here we are. And she's ordering food for us to take back with us.
00:04:52
Suze: And all of a sudden I hear her say, are you kidding me? And I go, what's wrong? She goes, Suze, I order organic chicken for us all the time. This one chicken from Costco is $39 a chicken.
00:05:09
Suze: And I said, and are you going to order it? She said, what do you think I should do? I said, I don't think there's any chicken on this world that's worth $39 when you're ordering it in any other place other than a restaurant. And I'm not even sure it's worth that in a restaurant.
00:05:29
Suze: And so then we started to look at the price of everything.
00:05:34
Suze: And
00:05:36
Suze: we decided that for the next few months we are going to be totally vegetarian because I am not going to spend $39 for a chicken. I am not going to spend $49 for steak or whatever it happens to be.
00:05:54
Suze: And one may wonder, well why not Suze? You can afford it. And here's what I want to say to all of you just because you have money doesn't mean you have to spend it
00:06:08
Suze: because none of us can ever forget when we didn't have money and then therefore just spend the money we have in any possible way. You know, my favorite question that I've always wanted all of you to be able to ask and answer is when you buy something that you can afford versus something that you need versus when you can afford more than what you need.
00:06:38
Suze: Did that make sense to you?
00:06:40
Suze: And that goes back to the day when I was starting to make money and I was going to be living in New York for small periods of time to do television and at that time I could afford a multimillion dollar penthouse, but I didn't need it.
00:07:03
Suze: So what did I do? I bought a $240,000 apartment on 57th at the time. This was now 1997 or 1998 and that's what I purchased because that's all I needed. So I just ask you as time goes on
00:07:23
Suze: can you ask yourself that question just because you can afford to buy something
00:07:30
Suze: do you? If what you are buying is something you do not need? Just saying.
00:07:37
Suze: Okay, what do I think is going to happen now in 2023?
00:07:44
Suze: I do not think that 2023 is going to be as bad of a year, financially speaking as it was in 2022 and partly. That's because the market went down in January of 2022 and that's when many of you on paper
00:08:09
Suze: and possibly really took significant losses with your money.
00:08:16
Suze: You saw stocks such as Netflix or Shopify or whatever the stocks were. Apple, Amazon go down significantly
00:08:27
Suze: and are they going to go back up or not? I'll tell you that in a second.
00:08:33
Suze: But here we are in a situation now where many of the stocks are seriously down now. Do I think that these markets could go down seriously from here even more?
00:08:49
Suze: I have to tell you if I was going to give you a bias as to do I think these markets are going to go up are going to go down. I still think for this market to really finally one day turn around and go back up it needs to go back down further. I get very well that the Standard and Poor's 500 index as we speak is almost at 4000.
00:09:19
Suze: But I don't think we're going to see it stay there. So this is not a time that I would be buying if you want to know the truth do. I think that it could go up a little bit higher from here. I absolutely do.
00:09:35
Suze: But its resistance level...
00:09:39
Suze: Do all of you know what that means? Is about 4155.
00:09:45
Suze: So I have a feeling that when you see it go up, if it does from this point to about 4155.
00:09:54
Suze: That it could hold around there and then possibly start to go down what I'm really concerned about 60% of the stocks in the Standard and Poor's 500 index are now indicating that they are overbought.
00:10:15
Suze: What overbought means is most of the people who wanted to buy it have already purchased it. That's a simple explanation. Remember you need people to buy and buy and buy to push the price of something up. If most of the people who bought it
00:10:38
Suze: have already purchased it, then that's when it's considered to be overbought.
00:10:46
Suze: So I would just be careful here
00:10:50
Suze: Given that we're overbought. Given that we're approaching another resistance level. I would just know that there's a bigger probability that these markets, especially the Standard and Poor's 500, they are going to go down
00:11:11
Suze: more than they are going to go up. The long term bias
00:11:18
Suze: is down.
00:11:21
Suze: Now, what happens to most of you is things start to go up and what you're invested in maybe is not participating. So now you get nervous because oh my God, I'm missing out. Stop it, everybody. Short term moves is not what you need to be involved with and get all freaked out about.
00:11:47
Suze: So just because we've been going up does not mean we're going to continue up. However we may because there's no way to know for sure. But the bias when you look at everything, the bias is down. Now somebody sent in an email. I think her name was Dawn and I think it was yesterday morning when she sent it in
00:12:12
Suze: that said Suze, can you talk about how you would diversify how you would rebalance a portfolio?
00:12:21
Suze: And what Dawn was asking is really what sectors of the market or what ETFs would I be concentrating in right now?
00:12:35
Suze: So if you are somebody who wants to invest in the areas and just the areas that are most likely to do well this year,
00:12:47
Suze: then that is what you would do. Because remember when you buy the Vanguard total stock market index fund or the Standard and Poor's 500 fund or ETF,
00:13:00
Suze: you are invested across the board. But many of them have more money invested in certain things like technology that maybe is not in favor.
00:13:13
Suze: So just maybe you also might want to diversify by doing exchange traded funds that diversify you in a different way.
00:13:24
Suze: So take out your Suze notebook.
00:13:28
Suze: The areas of the market for this year that are projected to do well.
00:13:36
Suze: are consumer staples,
00:13:40
Suze: healthcare and utilities. Somebody wrote me and said Suze,
00:13:47
Suze: I'm in a consumer staple ETF. Should I sell it? What should I do? It's really not going anywhere. Listen, it's still paying you a dividend. It's still pretty stable.
00:13:59
Suze: I would be keeping it at this point in time.
00:14:04
Suze: The other areas that have been great
00:14:09
Suze: last year and will probably continue to be great,
00:14:14
Suze: are energy and defensives such as Raytheon, things like that. So energy are many of the energy stocks that many of you own the Excel-E ETF and those are projected to continue to do well maybe not go up as much as they did in the past years but they're still not projected to absolutely go down
00:14:44
Suze: what is projected to possibly go down our consumer discretionary ETF, or funds and information technology ETF, or funds or stocks. So information technology
00:15:02
Suze: are things such as Apple and Amazon and those types of things technology that makes it easier for you to buy, to use your computer to do all of those things. Those areas are still underweighted in most professional portfolios. That's just something for you to think about industrials,
00:15:30
Suze: the stocks that make up the Dow Jones industrial average
00:15:35
Suze: Caterpillar, John Deere, stocks like that are also projected to do pretty well as well. So maybe what you want to do is buy an ETF that just buys the Dow Jones industrial average and then you would do a diversification between all of that. But what's really important for you to understand
00:16:04
Suze: is that the first quarter, maybe even the second quarter of this year, I think we could see the Standard and Poor's go back down to 3500 I think what we need to see is people really, really freaking out
00:16:23
Suze: and getting so afraid. It's not even funny
00:16:27
Suze: and when that happens then very possibly we could see the bottom of this market and then we very possibly could turn around maybe this year? Just depending on what happens and start to see it go back up for a relatively longer period of time,
00:16:52
Suze: Continue dollar cost averaging into whatever it is that you feel suits what your investment objectives are
00:17:01
Suze: and just be careful that way. I still, as I said last year, I do not have a problem right now. Dollar cost averaging every other month or every third month
00:17:15
Suze: because I just think that gives you a chance to see what's happening in the market. I am not timing the market,
00:17:23
Suze: but I just think if you always do it on the same day every month, you may get caught in where we are right now.
00:17:32
Suze: And given that I don't think we're gonna stay here. Although I don't know for sure, I would rather just wait a little and let's just even see what happens next week or the week after that. Let's talk about energy for a little bit. Since a lot of you are writing me about Devon and the energy stocks that you are in.
00:17:54
Suze: I still feel with the opening of China
00:17:59
Suze: and that opening is going to affect us more than you have any idea. I still think energy could absolutely still go up, energies resistance level is 81-82. Let's see if it can break through that, if it breaks through that, its next resistance is $93.50.
00:18:28
Suze: I also think it's support level is about 70
00:18:32
Suze: and if it goes under 70 its next resistance happens to be what? About 56. As long as energy or W. T. I. Crude, if you're looking it up, is about $60 a barrel we will be okay. Now I know that Devon and other energy stocks have gone up and down and up and down
00:19:00
Suze: but still look at the dividend that it is paying you. So you are being paid just to wait if Devon and certain energy stocks happen to go up and it's making you nervous and you want to take your profits especially if you're in a retirement account and or
00:19:22
Suze: you've owned it for more than one year. So you would only be having to pay capital gains tax on it.
00:19:30
Suze: All right. You want to sell if that happens because it makes you nervous because you don't like seeing it go all the way up, all the way back down, all the way back up again. Okay, You have to do what you have to do to make you feel secure. So stop asking me if you should sell is now the time to sell. What do you think is gonna happen? This is your money everybody
00:19:55
Suze: and my job is to hopefully educate you so that you on your own can make decisions
00:20:04
Suze: as to what you want to do or not
00:20:08
Suze: and you get so nervous with going up going down, going up going down
00:20:14
Suze: so you're just going to have to decide. Remember I told you that the main reason that you are buying some of these stocks is for the dividend.
00:20:25
Suze: When Devon started to go up and up, a lot of you were writing me and said is now the time should I buy more? And I asked you back are you buying it for the dividend? And you said no. So if you're just buying it for a stock that you're gonna see go up and then maybe you want to sell, that's not why I would be buying it.
00:20:46
Suze: I would be buying it because of the dividend. And because I do think depending on when you buy it you can also make some money when you decide to sell it. If you ever decide to sell it.
00:21:03
Suze: Let's talk about gold for a second here
00:21:07
Suze: a while ago and I don't remember when
00:21:10
Suze: I told all of you that I really liked a company whose symbol was G. O. L. D. It was Barrick Gold. It was paying you a nice dividend at the time and I did think gold was going to go up then again last week I think it was at about 18 something dollars a share. I get an email from somebody that says Suze, I listened to you, I bought it, I'm up 20%. Should I sell it?
00:21:38
Suze: And I can't remember if I answered that or not because the answer would have been no but again I don't want to be the one to tell you to sell something or buy something. I want you to make those decisions on your own. Since then in just a week gold the stock G. O. L. D. Is currently at about 19.64 a share.
00:22:04
Suze: Now it's year high, it's 52 week high it's $26 a share. So you may look at that and you may think oh if I bought it here I have room if gold is going to go up to make some money now I also want to tell you at this price it's still paying you a dividend of about 2.83%. Okay but here's the problem.
00:22:31
Suze: Gold right now is at $1923 an ounce. OK
00:22:39
Suze: And gold's resistance was 1900. So gold itself broke through its resistance level. So what does that mean? It means it absolutely could continue up but its next resistance level is only at 2063, an ounce. Are you all following me?
00:23:08
Suze: So this isn't where I would be necessarily chasing this stock or gold on any level because we're pretty close here. I would wait and I would see however I still think gold itself the commodity
00:23:27
Suze: Is favorable for right now. But remember anything like a commodity like gold is extremely speculative so you would never have more than 5% at most, maybe, maybe not even that invested in a commodity like gold or silver or copper or whatever. The reason that I like the stock.
00:23:54
Suze: Barrick stock when I recommended it is because I did think it was going to go up and at the time it was pain I think about 3 3.5% of a dividend. So at that time I thought it was good. So for those of you who have already purchased it, I'm not talking to those of you now who have not purchased it yet, to those of you who already have purchased it. What you need to take into consideration
00:24:24
Suze: is that
00:24:26
Suze: Barrick is at $19.64 with gold itself being at $1923 an ounce.
00:24:39
Suze: With gold resistance level at just $2,063 an ounce. Again, resistance level means that once it gets to that point it needs a lot behind it to break through it and then we see what happens. Those are the facts that you need to take into consideration if you should sell it here or not. Got that. Alright
00:25:09
Suze: next. Do you understand what I'm trying to do with all of you?
00:25:13
Suze: I'm trying to educate you on what you can look at, to make decisions on your own because what is one of my favorite sayings in life, You will never be powerful in life until you're powerful over your own money. How you think about it, how you feel about it and how you invest it
00:25:35
Suze: and I want all of you to own the power to control your destiny. Let's quickly talk about Bitcoin here.
00:25:46
Suze: Alright. Bitcoin has seriously rallied to really close to about $21,000. A Bitcoin.
00:25:55
Suze: Again, please keep in mind
00:25:58
Suze: That its resistance level is at this point because it broke through its initial resistance level which was 18,477. And again when it breaks through a resistance level and keeps going fabulous, it's next resistance is 21,500. Alright.
00:26:25
Suze: Now if it doesn't continue to break through that,
00:26:29
Suze: Then it is very possible you will see it retreat to about 17,000 because that is its support level where it could easily go down and maybe stop going down at that point. But if it breaks that support level it could easily go to 15,900. Again, long term bias on Bitcoin
00:26:56
Suze: is down. So I would not on any level be chasing Bitcoin here.
00:27:05
Suze: Remember you only invest in Cryptocurrency with money that you can afford to lose. So very possibly if you bought it when it was way down and now it's up at 21,000 approximately
00:27:22
Suze: you might want to just think about it, that is money that you made.
00:27:28
Suze: So the real problem with investing in my opinion is this, you buy something and then it goes up and you're just so happy with the fact that you made 20 or 30% on your money until you sell it and it continues up and in your head you're saying to yourself, my God, if I had just kept it, I'd be up 50%, I'd be up 100%.
00:27:56
Suze: That is not how you should look at something, you should look at the money you made, be happy that you made it. And then don't look at that investment anymore because if it continues to go up, it will make you sick to your stomach and then what will happen is next time you have an investment and it's up 20%, you will wait till it goes up to 40 or 50% before you want to sell it.
00:28:25
Suze: And then rather than it going up to 40 or 50%, it goes down and now you're down 40%.
00:28:32
Suze: So you need to know when you've made money and you feel good about it.
00:28:40
Suze: And if you feel good about it and it makes sense tax wise, you will never ever go broke taking a profit, especially in times like this,
00:28:55
Suze: where the markets seriously are all over the place and we still have all these outside influences affecting what could happen to the economy and to the stock market,
00:29:12
Suze: the other point that I wanted to make and I'm not sure that I did is when I started today's podcast on how expensive food happens to be.
00:29:23
Suze: And the decision we made with it,
00:29:27
Suze: inflation is still here. Now. I understand very well that inflation is starting to come down,
00:29:36
Suze: but I don't see it yet in the prices that are affecting you such as food and rent.
00:29:47
Suze: And even though I do think rents are starting to come down, I do not see food coming down at this point in time. Are you kidding me? $10 for a dozen eggs. If they're organic...
00:30:04
Suze: How do you do that? How does anybody do that, that works a job? Do you know that 60% of the people in the United States are living paycheck to paycheck and that's been true for a while now. And if they were living paycheck to paycheck before all of these prices went up. What are they doing now?
00:30:29
Suze: So I say that to you because even though things seem like they're getting better, I want you to wait and see. Are they getting better in your individual household. I just want you to keep that in mind and be really, really careful on what you choose to spend your money on now. Treasury bills and notes.
00:30:58
Suze: I still love them. I still love them. But I want to talk about the 10 year Treasury note for one second here. I think you will see 10 year Treasury notes go up to at least 4.34% or about 4.5%.
00:31:17
Suze: Which wouldn't necessarily be a bad time to lock in that interest rate. But that is not where we are at this moment in time.
00:31:28
Suze: I covered the stock market Gold cryptocurrencies Treasuries.
00:31:34
Suze: I know I didn't mention I bonds.
00:31:37
Suze: I want to wait to decide about I bonds just for another month or two.
00:31:45
Suze: Especially since you could just put your money that you would normally be investing in. I bonds in a short term Treasury. So you're not missing out on a good interest rate. And the 6.8% is not going to change until May 1st of this year. So we still have time to decide what we should and should not be doing. Remember when you invest in an I bond,
00:32:13
Suze: you cannot touch it for the first year and then years two through five, there is a three month interest penalty. So a three month interest penalty on even a lower interest rate would bring you below what you could be getting in What? In Treasuries now, I understand that interest rates compounding everything in series I bonds. They are tax deferred.
00:32:41
Suze: But I'm not sure if you have a whole lot of money in Series I bonds and you keep tax deferring them and eventually you want to take your money out what that does to you. If you've made a lot of interest that you are now going to have to pay taxes on.
00:33:01
Suze: So just let's wait when they were in the 9% area, the 7% area knowing that they were going to even go up a whole different story.
00:33:13
Suze: I just also want to say that this week I was able to meet my team at Secure Save as many of you know, I co founded a company with two other extraordinary people by the name of Devin Miller and Bessam Saliba, I met their wives, we all met face to face for the first time in almost three years
00:33:38
Suze: and oh my God, we had such a love fest and I met almost all of our employees, we now have almost 19, can you believe it? Or 20 at this point in time and it was a great time
00:33:55
Suze: to really realize that what we are doing with Secure Save is one of the most important missions any of us could be on. Secure Save dot com is where you can go to learn more about it, but essentially it is an employer sponsored emergency savings plan for employees that the employees can access the money at any time they want
00:34:23
Suze: and the employer matches the contribution. Fabulous, it is not in plan, like your retirement accounts are, it is out of plan and many corporations are starting to adopt it if it is something you would like your corporation to do,
00:34:41
Suze: go to Secure Save dot com and put down your corporation's name and we will contact them, just want to say that. But it was so fabulous. Alright. I'm so happy now to be going back to the island where it's 50 degrees, but I love that.
00:35:00
Suze: It's just so great to be able to walk around and have the wind in the cold, especially when you spend most of your life in 80 or 90° weather. So until next week there's really only one thing that I want all of you to know
00:35:18
Suze: today, wherever we go, we will create a more peaceful, joyful and loving world. That is our goal for all of us. All right now, you stay safe and secure. Bye bye now.
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